It’s difficult to overstate the uniqueness of this economic cycle…
There was unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus in 2020 and 2021, followed by a rapid rise in interest rates in 2022 and 2023 as inflation reached levels not seen since the 1970s. All that said, the S&P 500 just returned more than 10% for a second consecutive quarter, setting multiple new all‐time highs along the way. Home construction activity is the strongest since before 2008, consumer sentiment recently hit a 2.5‐year high, and unemployment remains below 4%.
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